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Bros Action Figure

Learning The Credit Crunch

For more precise information along with a broader description, you may go to avoid the credit crunch

This information is a successor to an article I wrote on October 11, 2007 through which I suggested that this credit crunch will be far worse than most people believed knowning that the effect on stock exchange trading, the financial system, economic vitality and inflation may be significant. It is now the week after Thanksgiving weekend and since I contemplate last week's market sell-off and also this week's dramatic rally, I realize that this stresses have raised more evident and I can't help but contemplate what might certainly be up for grabs for next season.

Around the positive side we're almost six years into an expansion as well as the US economy continues to grow albeit in a slower pace. Unemployment remains low except in sectors related to housing yet it is edging up. Corporate profits are actually good this year nonetheless they declined a lttle bit inside third quarter. Till the first weeks time of November stock exchange trading indices were at or near in history highs, though of late trading have been increasingly volatile. The financing crisis of August now looks like it's merely a problem with the financial sector to manage. The Fed has lowered rates 3 times indicating it would like to protect the economy. At first glance everything is looking OK.

But look under the surface mnblkjhq  and also the picture changes. The credit crunch has lost its crisis atmosphere but a majority of sectors of the credit markets remain paralyzed. This paralysis is actually affecting businesses and consumers in areas apart from property. Equity investors are nervous as evidenced with the stock market's extreme volatility. The Dow was 1,000 points off its all time high plus the S&P 500 being down year-to-date, though both bounced back on interest cut hopes. The housing sector is a deep recession moving towards a depression. Declining home values are siphoning off immeasureable consumer wealth while rising food and energy costs are eating into family budgets. Unemployment is edging up in numerous states and consumer confidence are at a two-year low. Consumer inflation is 3.6% year-to-date and edging higher. Over it all, we have been entering an election year and geopolitical events tend to be unstable and dangerous than to remain since WWII.

As consultants, businesses and senior executives our responsibility might be aware about what on earth is happening on the planet, anticipate how events might impact our clients or our businesses and remain prior to the curve through action to mitigate identified risk. We can not relax simply because everything's running nicely now. We will need to look ahead at what might or might not be.

I see seven interrelated threats that business owners, senior executives and Boards of Directors should understand, anticipate and cover so that you can minimize the negative consequences should one or more of these become reality. The key threat would be the growing recession because for the way after enough time it unravels it could produce anybody or higher on the other six - depression, recession, inflation, stagflation, legislative action unfavorable to business and geopolitical crisis. This can be a businessman's effort to provide the facts in a manner that enables other your clients to create a sense everthing.

The finance Markets

Maybe the greatest risk to the economy and our businesses is based on the credit markets. While the credit markets have calmed down because the crisis atmosphere of August, the root problem still exists as evidenced by the not enough liquidity from the capital markets as well as the huge write downs being taken at public financial institutions. It is currently understood that the ultimate seriousness of the financial lending crisis still remains to appear, and folks start to understand that depending on how it unfolds it may cause any of recession, inflation, stagflation and geopolitical upheaval.

It is currently clear which the massive amount of debt underlying the entire world economic climate is a risk of unwinding as a result of collateral defaults. The primary focus with the matter are Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs. CDOs are derivative securities, such as based on another asset. Trillions of dollars of such instruments were created and sold within the last six years. In line with Satyajit Das, on the list of world's leading experts in derivative securities for more than 20 years, $1.00 of real capital supports $20.00 to $30.00 in loans. Meaning each dollar is leveraged 20 to 30 times! He estimates derivatives outstanding to be $485 trillion, or eight times global gdp of $60 trillion. The scary thing is the fact no one can tell for certain who holds all of this paper.

Sixty global and there's merely a limited amount the Fed and other central banks is capable of doing to manage it. This is because a great deal of the challenge is in the unregulated shadow banking system[1] understood to be the full alphabet soup of highly levered non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures. The issue of securitization is that credit risk moved from regulated entities where maybe it's observed to places where that it was unregulated and hard to observe. Without regulators to maintain tabs on cross-border flows and quality standards, investors did not really understand what these were buying or what it really was worth.

U.S. ingenuity: From the post dot com bubble and 9/11 world of ultra low interest, US Banks saw their net interest margins shrink with their loan volume which negatively impacted profits. Hence the banks developed ingenious means of creating significant fee income by bundling volumes of consumer (most of them low income) and leveraged buy-out loans into precisely what are called Asset Backed Securities (ABS) to be sold to institutional investors like "bonds". The investors then use these ABSs as collateral for an additional pair high-yielding debt instrument termed as a Collateralized Debt Obligation. These CDOs were got by Asia and Mid-East governments, hedge funds and pension funds in search of rated high-yield instruments in which to park their mountains of emerging markets cash. Financial engineers built towers of securitized debt with mathematical models which were fundamentally flawed, while managers overloaded on high-yield debt instruments they didn't understand. All in the process financial institutions pocketed huge fees while shifting trillions of dollars of risk off their balance sheets and to the hands of investors. Around recently alone Wall Street bankers (like the money center commercial banks) generated $27.4 billion in fee income from your origination, securitization and sale of exotic Asset Backed Securities.

Because of low interest rates in the US and Japan most CDOs were bought with borrowed money. To put it differently, borrowed money bought borrowed money. On account of high people's credit reports the CDOs may very well be used as collateral for much more borrowing. These triple borrowed assets were then used as collateral for commercial paper purchased by risk adverse money market funds. In the event the assets underlying these securities start to default in good sized quantities (sub-prime loans), the CDOs lose value plus the institutions holding them incur losses. And since no one knows beyond doubt who's holding this paper most people are afraid of taking on new counterparty risk. The financing markets become illiquid and many financial institutions wind up holding quite a bit of CDOs for the purpose there is absolutely no or limited market.

Asset Backed Security basics: Let's take collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) being that they are the perfect to know. Into their simplest "pass through" form banks and other lenders originate loans, warehouse them for the brief time, package them into a bond, develop the bond rated then sell the link to investors. As opposed to earning money from your net interest margin in the life of the underlying loans, the originators earn origination fees and payments from servicing rights. Investors who buy CMOs are in reality acquiring the future profit from your underlying loans' principal and interest rates. Because the CMO is rated with the rating agencies purchasing price equals one's destiny cash flow discounted to a yield like rating of the bond. The luxury of it for the originator is the fees comprise front, the servicing rights produce an ongoing way to obtain fee income unless sold, the financial lending risk is moved to the investor as well as the investment proceeds encourage the originator for making still more loans. The investor gets a rated instrument with a yield appropriate on the rating.

The role of rating agencies: Ratings on bonds convey an agency's assessment of the odds of default. Investors make use of ratings when producing investment decisions with the rating agency's reputation. For instance, on the 21 year period Moody's AAA rated bonds demonstrated a .79% odds of default by year 10. Inside the asset backed securities world similarly rated loans or bonds are combined in a very portfolio, then put into different tranches with all the riskiest tranches taking the first loss, receiving the best credit ratings and offering the highest yield. Similarly minimal risky tranche takes the past loss, receives the greatest credit standing and provides the smallest yield. In this manner a portfolio made up of B rated individual securities could be packaged to offer senior tranches that receive a b or even AAA rating and junior tranches that obtain a junk rating.

Bubble trouble: In recent years double bubbles drove US economic growth by providing unprecedented liquidity to the financial markets: 1) asset securitization, particularly subprime loans; and two) the cisco kid banking system, looked as hedge funds, pension funds along with the whole alphabet soup of highly levered non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures like ABSs, CBOs, CDOs, CLOs, CMOs, SIVs and CDSs. The joint expansion of the two of these bubbles was grounded in the irrational belief that home would forever increase inspite of affordability, and use of capital at low interest could well be unlimited because holders of "safe" asset backed commercial paper would forever roll their investments. Belief within the former proved unfounded in 2007 when subprime loan defaults soared, which caused a de facto run on the shadow banking system as investors refused to roll their asset backed commercial paper holdings and demanded their own back.

Changing models, changing ratings: As sub-prime loan defaults rose in 2007, in contravention with the rating agencies' mathematical models, CMOs began to collapse. As defaults accelerated the rating agencies were forced to review their models. On July 10, 2007 the rating agencies changed their models and downgraded many CMOs. This caused panic and uncertainty among CMO investors plus the contagion quickly spread to everyone other types of CDOs.

Uncertainty and risk: Investors believed that the default distributions from the ratings on their own asset backed securities were similar to the default distributions of your companion assets backing them. Following mass downgrade of July 10th investors concluded they were mistaken. Investors not knew for many the default distribution of the things they owned. The things they did know was that the model upon which they based their investment decisions had grown to be wrong. When Investors are not aware of whatever they don't know there is certainly uncertainty. Uncertainty is different than risk. Risk may be quantified and diversified, uncertainty cannot. Uncertainty causes investors to step away with the result that asset backed securities investing arenas are essentially frozen, bid-ask spreads are wide and "indicative" (not firm) and several investors assert they simply don't need any ABS risk. This is a killer for the shadow banks.

Banking in the shadows: Unlike insured, regulated real banks, shadow banks fund themselves to your large degree with uninsured commercial paper which may or may not be backstopped by liquidity lines from real banks. The cisco kid banking method is particularly at risk of a run that is when commercial paper investors won't flip their investment when their paper matures. That causes the shadow banks to tap their back-up liquidity lines with real banks and/or liquidate assets at fire sale prices. Itrrrs this that happened in July and August as outstanding asset backed commercial paper plunged $300 billion along with the Libor spread on the Fed Funds rate widened by 50 basis points. The loan markets had effectively frozen.

Cosmetic fix for a structural problem: That led to the Fed's 50 basis point cut inside discount rate on August 17th as well as the Fed Funds rate on September 18th and October 16th that have been designed to create liquidity within the credit markets. But all they did was calm the markets, not create the desired liquidity. The causes were three fold: 1) banks hate to gain access to in the discount window considering that the Fed has long been described as lender of last resort (read troubled bank); 2) the discount rate remained a 50 basis point premium within the Fed Funds rate; and 3) seeing that the rating and pricing models for securitized debt had proven to be faulty, the important banks were seeking to decrease exposure to the shadow banks, not increase it.

Frozen Solid: As subprime mortgage defaults increased and agencies lowered their ratings, investors, banks and funds began looking at all derivative backed paper with suspicion, refusing to take it collateral for the short-term commercial paper that provides liquidity to today's money markets. It is estimated that 53% of $2.2 trillion US commercial paper has become backed by assets, and 50% on the assets are CDOs. That is over $500 billion in commercial paper backed by CDOs. As of November 2nd collateralized commercial paper had declined for 11 straight weeks in the amount totaling $300 billion or 25% in the amount outstanding towards the end of July. Further, up to $300 billion in leveraged finance loans were "orphaned" simply because couldn't be sold or used as collateral (so this means they have to take place in portfolio within the lender's balance sheet). Large segments on the credit markets were frozen solid.

What: Could the amount securitized debt the general public institutions grip their balance sheets, and it comes from many quantities of dollars. But these amounts don't take into account the off-balance sheet exposure these institutions should the highly leveraged special purpose companies they established to create, buy and trade this paper, or even the individual hedge funds that borrowed on the banks and represent counterparty risk as well. In the third quarter most of the public institutions took large write-downs contrary to the derivatives held independently balance sheets, including Citigroup, WAMU, Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Countrywide. However, the write downs add up to a fraction of the Level 2 and Level 3 assets[2] hence the fear is the fact considerably more will have to be written down as underlying collateral defaults increase.

Indeed, in October and November the write-downs have accelerated with Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wachovia, Freddie Mac among others all announcing multi-billion reserves for expected losses. Up to now over $66 billion in provisions for losses happen to be announced and even more is predicted. Two seen CEOs happen to be fired, Citigroup and Freddie Mac happen to be downgraded, may cut their dividends and therefore are raising capital to fulfill minimum regulatory requirements. The effects of leverage inside a declining marketplace is that losses are amplified. As value sets other assets have to be sold (usually for way less than) to take care of covenants. When derivatives can be bought at a discount, accounting rules require that each one similar assets inside debt chain be reduced because of the same discount. This quickly drains more liquidity through the system making the global liquidity situation worse.

No one knows for sure as to what extent any entity is exposed so most people are not wanting to undertake new counterparty risk. Because of this , the financing markets remain just one single little bit of not so good faraway from panic. The credit markets also impact stock market trading which until recently been on part been driven by CDO type instruments which are beneath the heading of "structured finance" (LBO, MBO, stock buy-backs), by corporate liquidity created throughout the issuance of asset backed commercial paper and by the securitization gains reported by publicly owned banks, funds along with other banking companies. If deals don't end up being done, if corporate liquidity dries up or if banks, mutual funds among others continue reporting large losses on derivative securities, the market industry is liable to a sell-off even as we have seen inside first and third weeks of November.

Deflating bubbles: Thus current market volatility might be more than just a correction. It is fear of a gigantic liquidity bubble deflating. The Fed cannot prevent this by lowering rates or injecting liquidity since the issue is not how much cash from the system. The catch is that investors are questioning the entire risk transfer model and its particular associated leverage and counterparty risk. The August credit crisis would not disappear, it simply moved away from the home page. Think about this - huge amounts of dollars of investment grade CDOs are held by state and native pension funds. These cash is generally restricted by law to investing in only investment grade paper. What the results are if the investment grade CMO in a pension fund portfolio is downgraded to non-investment grade or maybe junk status? The fund is forced to sell these securities, most likely for much less. That's why some people who comprehend the extent to which the world economy continues to be based on debt are making risk mitigation a higher priority. Some examples are people with the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept.

Contagious crunch: Because the enterprize model with the securitization of subprime mortgages ceased to figure, that asset class imploded. As opposed to being contained because the Wall Street and Beltway authorities predicted, Wall Street soon began repricing other classes of financial risk assets (bank card and auto finance portfolios, etc.) to improve risk premiums (lower valuations). However the contagion is not really limited by portfolios of securitized assets.

The housing recession is clearly being exacerbated by way of a mushrooming mortgage crunch as lenders raise credit standards and reduce loan amounts. And as the monetary burden from housing goes into family budgets lenders are starting to determine increased credit card and car loan delinquencies and defaults requiring increases in reserve requirements of these asset classes. When reserve requirements increase lending goes down and terms have more onerous. Interest rates, extra fees and penalties get higher, credit limits are reduced and grace periods are shorter. They're early indications of a well used credit crunch. The popularity to all credit markets toward less and more expensive credit is a drag on the economy in 2008. How much of any drag is very anyone's guess since the subprime meltdown puts the economy in uncharted waters.

A companion article titled "The Seven Threats for your Business in 2008" will be published this date and may explain the possibility impact which the recession should have on the general economy plus your business specifically.

[1] Shadow Banking Strategy is a phrase coined by Paul McCulley of PIMCO

[2] Level 3 Assets are the ones assets which is why there is no market. Level 2 Assets are those assets for which there is a thin, erratic market. As there is no reliable rate of these assets, accounting rules and securities regulations enable the institutions to find out value using internal valuation models. The result is that a CDO could be valued at .95 at one institution while at another institution that same CDO could possibly be valued at .90.

Possibly, you still have doubts in your mind. To look for answer, you may like to find it at prevent the credit crunch

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